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With nearly a million copies sold, Security Analysis has been continuously in print for more than sixty years. No investment book in history had either the immediate impact, or the long-term relevance and value, of its first edition in 1934. By 1951, seventeen years past its original publication and more than a decade beyond its revised and acclaimed 1940 second edition, authors Benjamin Graham and David Dodd had seen business and investment markets travel from the depths of Depression to the heights of recovery, and had observed investor behavior during both the calm of peacetime and the chaos of World War II. The prescient thinking and insight displayed by Graham and Dodd in the first two editions of Security Analysis reached new heights in the third edition. In words that could just as easily have been written today as fifty years ago, they detail techniques and strategies for attaining success as individual investors, as well as the responsibilities of corporate decision makers to build shareholder value and transparency for those investors. The focus of the book, however, remains its timeless guidance and advice--that careful analysis of balance sheets is the primary road to investment success, with all other considerations little more than distractions. The authors had seen and survived the Great Depression as well as the political and financial instabilities of World War II and were now better able to outline a program for sensible and profitable investing in the latter half of the century. Security Analysis: The Classic 1951 Edition marks the return of this long-out-of-print work to the investment canon. It will reacquaint you with the foundations of value investing--more relevant than ever in tumultuous twenty-first century markets--and allow you to own the third installment in what has come to be regarded as the most accessible and usable title in the history of investment publishing.

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市场发生的变化如此深刻，而这本20世纪30年代写的投资手册在今天却仍然适用，着实令人惊讶。但要注意，人性不会改变：人们仍然在狂躁的高点和抑都的低点之间摇摆，求即时获利，却厌恶付出努力、认真研究和独立思考，现代投资者和他们的祖父辈，甚至曾祖父辈在这些方面都十分一致。无论是当时还是现在，大多数投资者的心魔（主要是情绪因素）都需要用纪律来克服。证券分析的要领，也没有太大的改变。

时至今日，如果没有评注，格雷厄姆和多德的投资圣经仍很难理解，但并不妨得这部大作所传达的理论精要经久不衰，历久弥香。只要投资者还是人类，就会有诸如贪婪、恐惧、压力、怀疑等所有人类情绪，那些有勇气战胜个人情绪的投资者才可以在市场中获利。只要人性中的羊群效应依然存在，那些不畏孤独、逆流而上的投资者就永远有机会。正如丹麦王子哈姆雷特所说“但愿上天保佑如此之士，因为他们的冲动与理智已调适得和谐淑均，他们不会忍气吞声，默默接受命运的玩弄与摆布，也不会轻举妄动、意气用事。”这种精神也正是格雷厄姆和多德所体现出来的。

此外，华尔街天生喜欢反应过度。在固有的刻板印象中，华尔街充斥着多头与空头。事实上，华尔街的图腾并非牛和熊，而是不断转换方向猎食的鲨鱼。捕食过程涉及大量资本的转移，难免有时会发生错配。正如约翰・邓普顿爵士（ Sir JohnTempleton）所说：“牛市在悲观中诞生，在怀疑中成长，在乐观中成熟，在狂欢中消亡。”①破产投资者正是輩这些资本错配为生。他们买入华尔街盆鱼们想售田的下游产品。在行情较好时，华尔街会允许通过新债务发行回购股票，致使收购潮初现。

永久性投资”的传统概念

在一代人以前，“永久性投资”是一个金融领域的股票惯用语，针对保守型投资者的典型购买行为，主要包含三个概念：

（1）意在无限期持有；

（2）只对年度收益感兴趣，不在意本金价值的波动；

（3）不考虑影响公司未来发展的因素。

根据定义，所谓稳健的投资，就是在除了付息日或股息发放日以外的任何时候，尽可以将它们抛诸脑后。

这种对于高等级投资品的传统看法第一次受到严重质疑是在1920-192年的经济萧条期，因为该投资策略的表现难以令人满意。很多投资者认为他们持有的证券是安全的，不需要进行检查，然而最终却遭受了巨大损失。虽然经济在接下来的七年里逐渐转向繁荣，但不同类型的投资证券受到了不同的影响，传统意义上的完美证券一一“金边证券”遭受到持续增加的损失。因此，早在1929年的市场崩盘之前华尔街就已经形成了新的原则一一忽视过去的投资会产生风险，因此需要通过定期审查和监督所持有的证券来控制投资风险。这个原则与以前的投资实务截然不同可以被总结为一句格言：“没有永久性的投资。”

对如何估计未来收益（对任何类型的企业来说），《证券分析》提供了两条关键的原则：第一，如上所述，收益稳定的公司更容易预测，因此应当优先选择这样的公司。当今世界更加多变，因此第一条可能需要适度更新一下，即对于收益波动比较大的公司，在估测它的未来时需要更谨慎，并且在研究它的过去时应该追溯更远。格雷厄姆和多德提议研究公司历史的时候要追溯10年。第二点，涉及收益波动的趋势，至少在某种程度上，以一个周期性模式呈现。因此，格雷厄姆和多德做出了极其重要（并且经常被忽略）的区分。一个公司的平均收入只能对其未来的预测有个粗略的指导；其收益趋势的可能性越低。棒球迷们都知道，我们不能仅仅因为一个平时成绩平平的击球员，突然有一个星期发挥上佳，就认为他本赛季剩下的时间都会表现这么好。而且即使这次他表现优异，很可能他明年的比赛结果仍会回到平均水平上去。但投资者容易受到趋势的诱惑，也许他们倾向于被引诱，就像格雷厄姆和多德所说的：“长远未来的发展趋势将产生任何期望的效果。

事实上，依我们之所见，绝大部分实力雄厚的公司的普通股，在大多数时间里都必须被看作投机买卖，以为它们的价格太高，在任何理性投资的意义下都无法保证本金安全。我们必须提醒读者，在这一点上，华尔街现行的观点与本书观点相左。孰对孰错，读者需自行判断。

书籍介绍

在线阅读本书

With nearly a million copies sold, Security Analysis has been continuously in print for more than sixty years. No investment book in history had either the immediate impact, or the long-term relevance and value, of its first edition in 1934. By 1951, seventeen years past its original publication and more than a decade beyond its revised and acclaimed 1940 second edition, authors Benjamin Graham and David Dodd had seen business and investment markets travel from the depths of Depression to the heights of recovery, and had observed investor behavior during both the calm of peacetime and the chaos of World War II. The prescient thinking and insight displayed by Graham and Dodd in the first two editions of Security Analysis reached new heights in the third edition. In words that could just as easily have been written today as fifty years ago, they detail techniques and strategies for attaining success as individual investors, as well as the responsibilities of corporate decision makers to build shareholder value and transparency for those investors. The focus of the book, however, remains its timeless guidance and advice--that careful analysis of balance sheets is the primary road to investment success, with all other considerations little more than distractions. The authors had seen and survived the Great Depression as well as the political and financial instabilities of World War II and were now better able to outline a program for sensible and profitable investing in the latter half of the century. Security Analysis: The Classic 1951 Edition marks the return of this long-out-of-print work to the investment canon. It will reacquaint you with the foundations of value investing--more relevant than ever in tumultuous twenty-first century markets--and allow you to own the third installment in what has come to be regarded as the most accessible and usable title in the history of investment publishing.